Stuttgart v St Pauli - FootX Preview - W51

FootX featured Game of the Week - Stuttgart vs St Pauli !

Game context

Last game of 2024 for Stuttgart and St Pauli on Saturday 21st at 14:30 CET.
Stuttgart is a coherent team that performs quite well in this year Bundesliga, while St Pauli is struggling just beyond the relegation zone after their promotion. Still, Stuttgart is in a delicate situation in Champions League, with 2 wins needed to have a chance to qualify to the next round.

Focus on last games

Thanks to recent games, Stuttgart is close to european spots. 3 wins (Bochum, Union Berlin, Heidenheim), 1 draw (Werder Bremen) and 1 loss (Frankfurt) in their last 5 league games.

In the mean time, St Pauli lost 4 of their last 5 games.

FootX computed team ELO also shows a +200 advantage for Stuttgart, showing the teams strength difference.

Statistics

Stuttgart show more control over the ball:

• Avg pass distance of around 4 meters vs more than 5 for St Pauli
• 602 avg possessions played per game vs 464.
• 6.4 Shots on Target vs 3 => Stuttgart creates way more chances.
• More stats on the app …
• Interestingly, St Pauli fetches ball as high as Stuttgart, showing this team is always keen to play.

Teams formations

Stuttgart played different formations recently, allowing rotations because of european games.
Their 4-2-3-1 seems the most stable, but they still played with 2 forwards against Heidenheim.

St Pauli is more consistent with a 3-4-3, with the same players almost all game. This formation explains how they can get back the ball high enough, with a pretty dense midfield.

Model prediction and decision

With FootX model estimating at more than 58% the home win, Stuttgart’s recent results and statistical analysis suggesting that this game should be opened enough to allow for Stuttgart chances, I will back Stuttgart to win @1.45 (Pinnacle).